But a lot of Canadians think a Trump presidency is possible, and even likely. After all, when every news pundit said it was impossible and instead he got the nomination just as easily as Romney did in 2012, it is hard to say he can't become President too.
Looking at polling right now paints a different story. Trump is down in every swing state, and usually by a lot. His Midwest strategy looks to be completely failing, with Clinton way up in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. He's down in every demographic except white men without college degrees. So is it possible he could overcome all of this and become President of the United States?
The answer is yes, yes he can. But it's not likely, and even less so than after my last post on the subject.
The traditional way Trump can win is simple; the polling bump from the Democratic National Convention ends, and begins to fall. Clinton still leads, but not by as much. Then the debates happen, and Trump decisively beats her in them. He overtakes her, wins election.
The non-traditional way is in the realm of speculation; Clinton gets murdered (which Trump has recently suggested supporters should do) and Democrats can't mount a challenger. Or maybe the economy goes done the tubs, or there's a housing crash, or a devastating terror attack. Maybe Obama reveals a scandal. Maybe Julian Assange of Wikileaks reveals Clinton's missing emails. Anything big, noticeable, and unexpected can tip the scales.
But obviously, speculation works both ways. Someone could murder Trump, he can be hit with scandals, maybe Assange reveals his tax returns. And they aren't a very good metric to predict on, because their so... unpredictable.
So let's work out how likely the "traditional" victory can happen. It starts with Trump reversing his poll deficit. This isn't happening nearly fast enough for him. This is probably because after the DNC, Trump began to attack the family of a fallen veteran, and began to openly claim the election is already rigged.
Trump just can't stop himself from saying something that annoys most people. Sure, his base doesn't care (or likes it) but Romney and McCain both held the Republican base and lost decisively to Obama. Republican candidates need to tack to the middle, and saying outrageous things doesn't help.
The problem Trump has is that to reverse this, he can't just shut up. Then Clinton hold her edge right up to the debates. Why? Well, for instance Trump gave a big speech this week on his economic plan. It was meant to convince swing voters he had a grasp of economics and had plans to improve their prospects. Few people watched it (I didn't).
People don't care about policy speeches. Their boring. And we are currently in a bit of a lull for the election, because the Olympics are on! So most people are turning away from CNN and FOX to NBC to watch the US of A rack up medals.
So Trump's not doing well to close that poll difference, and doesn't have much chances to do so until the debates. But as we've seen, Mr. Trump isn't very good at debates. The moderators challenge him on facts, and sometimes openly attack him. Clinton gets challenged too, but she is a lot better at deflecting. And Sanders' best attacks on her were on her character, which Trump lacks the legitimacy to do (his character sucks too).
And then after the debates... whoa, its election day. Wait, there are only 90 or so days from now to the election?
So Trump's got little time and few chances to change the game. Thankfully, he doesn't seem to care. His campaign has yet to pay for a general election ad, while Clinton has spent $52 million. He doesn't court any of the demographics he needs, like women or college-educated voters (other than by saying, "Don't worry, women love me.") The election is already rigged, he says.
And why would he want to be President? Although Trump enjoys campaigning (the entire country gets to talk about him, he clearly loves that), being President is a tough job. You need to compromise, and understand the issues, go around the world to negotiate with other leaders. And perhaps most importantly to Trump, the honeymoon period doesn't last long and the electorate almost always turns on the President.
So let Trump be Trump, and this whole thing will be over soon.
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