In political science, the past year has been nothing short of revolutionary. The conventional wisdom of political scientists everywhere was that globalism is not only pushing the world into further integration, but that the effects are accelerating.
What no one seemed to notice is that there are some people who aren't happy about globalism. And these people not only vote, they can win.
It started off in a few smaller countries where no one really noticed. In 2015, Poland voted for the "Law and Justice Party," giving the country a majority government for the first time since 1989. As you can guess by the name, the Party is tough on crime and wants to boost the power of the state by increasing the executive's power. They are also skeptical of the EU, want to limit immigration, openly disdain gay rights, and want to boost military spending.
Austria had the next election in April 2016. For the presidency, four parties ran for election, two of whom we established in politics, the other two being far-right and far-left. The two anti-establishment parties won the most votes, and qualified for the run off. This was the first time since WWII that a candidate from the established parties had not qualified for the run-off. The two remaining, was the nationalist Freedom Party of Austria, and the leftist Green Alternative. The run-off awarded the Green Alternative the narrowest of victories, which the Freedom Party succeeded in contesting. Austria will need to vote again for either of these two candidates in December.
The news did acknowledge how odd that election was, as the Freedom Party has openly mentioned the possibility of pulling out of the European Union. At the same time, the far-right part didn't really win, and it is Austria, a country that exists mostly on the periphery of importance.
The Philippines then elected Rodrigo Duterte in May, an increasingly erratic president who has threatened to pull out of the United Nations and abandon an alliance with the United States. It is believed that 3,000 people have been killed in his way on drugs since the election, all of which were without trial. Duterte has even called President Obama a "son of a whore," and has pledged to realign his country's interest with repressive China.
Then came the next bombshell; Brexit. The United Kingdom voted 52% to leave the European Union, an outcome not predicted by the polls and only supported by the most obscure of British politicians. The PM David Cameron resigned, and was a clear blow to the European project.
In November, Bulgaria elected openly pro-Russian candidate Rumen Radev, supported by the Socialist Party. And then Estonia elected Juri Ratas, another pro-Russian candidate as Prime Minister.
And the final nail in the coffin, is the election of Donald Trump as President of the most powerful nation on Earth. He is perhaps the most anti-establishment, anti-trade, anti-globalist person elected to that office since Andrew Jackson.
So... what does this all mean?
It is a pattern, showing a consistent rejection of traditional politics and politicians. It isn't defined by a particular ideology or policy, with Trump technically being conservative while others are more socialist. What is common is a clear rejection of the traditional party elites, a rejection of free trade and of immigration. There is increased tribalism and nationalism emerging, with parties like "Golden Dawn" in Greece and "the National Front" in France gaining popularity.
These result may have been inevitable. The events in the Middle East have led to a mass exodus of refugees and migrants, the most seen since WWII. There would of course be a negative reaction from Europeans nations that have mostly white populations. The UK is 87% white, France is 85%, and Germany 80%. Having to adjust to new, different people very quickly will always create negative reactions.
Add to the economic stagnation in most countries, and that there is a perception that crime and terrorism is on the rise (it actually isn't) and you have a common mindset globally. People different from us are moving in to take our jobs, and my culture is disappearing, and our jobs are disappearing to other countries, and our jobs aren't as good as they used to be, and the world is getting more dangerous and our leaders don't care about us and don't want to fix any of this.
No wonder people are choosing the most radical candidates, parties and directions.
This isn't new either. When the going gets tough, people vote tougher. Benito Mussolini, Adolf Hitler, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Vladimir Putin were all chosen by the people (yep, Napoleon won elections) and were all immensely popular. They didn't emerge out of vacuums, but instead out of chaos and economic calamity. Telling people what they want to hear and promising to fix it will sadly succeed more than the gritty compromise building and maneuvering of democracy.
And the newest radical leaders have again another thing in common; stripping out democracy. For in order to pursue the people's will, they need to tear down the institutions that may keep their power in check.
The events haven't stopped either. Next year France has its presidential election, between the incumbent Socialists, the challenging establishment Republicans, and the anti-globalism National Front. With the Socialist favorability dismal, the next president is likely Republican. But Marine le Pen and the National Front is within striking distance, and them winning could spell the doom of the European Union, an institution that has maintained collective unity on the continent. Its end would make the future a lot more uncertain.
I don't think we are heading for a WWII type nightmare, as we leave in a very different world than 1940. But the parallels exist and are striking. Sadly, radical leaders of the past never met their voters promises for long, and often made more problems rather than less. Maybe this will be different, or the pattern will stop. What happens over the next year could indeed bring even more changes.
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