What Does This Mean?

Ok, it is November 9th. And the number one question people have asked me is; "What does this mean?"

Let me be frank here. I was wrong. I didn't think he would win (though I knew he could). In my defense, no one really thought he could win, because all of the data was wrong.

Last night, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States.

Electorally, it was an important win. It showed that with today's demographics, Republicans can win the Presidency. But that has its limits too, as it looks increasingly likely that Trump will lose the popular vote after it is all tallied, meaning they have only won more votes once in the past seven elections. And there was more than one state where the amount of third-party voters could have changed the state's outcome.

But there are very real consequences. The Republican Party controls all our branches of government, with the Presidency, majorities in Congress, and will soon have a majority in the Supreme Court. The last time this happened was FDR in World War II. Essentially, if Republicans agree, they can do whatever they want.

That's the key though. "If Republicans agree." That is the biggest decider of what the future holds, if the party can actually hold together when their are such clear differences of opinion. Let's take a look at some key Trump promises;

1. The Wall
Can this actually happen? Sort of. Logistically building Trump's wall is going to be a challenge (the U.S-Mexican border goes through towns, mountains and rivers) but can technically happen in many areas. And this is something that most Republicans can agree on; tougher border security. So... this could happen.

2. The Muslim Ban
This is less likely. There were some big objections in the Republican party to this proposal, and although it could technically by done by Executive Order, this probably won't happen. What is more likely, is a complete shutdown on any refugees from the Middle East, something Republicans are fairly united on.

3. Taxes
Although Trump occasionally drifted into saying he wanted higher taxes on the rich, the Republican platform he ran on doesn't say that. In fact, these are bigger tax cuts than Reagan's. And these are likely to pass. The Republican party has long ran on saying that the only way to grow the economy is to cut regulations and taxes. This is true, but America also has some of the lowest income taxes in the world, and most experts agree the economy would need to grow by 6% to balance the budget. It is highly unlikely that the economy will triple in production because of tax cuts alone.

4. Climate Change
Republicans have long agreed that even if climate change is real, that it isn't worth the regulations. So we may see Trump himself pull out of the Paris agreement, and if he doesn't lawmakers will simply ignore it.

5. Gay Marriage and Abortion
OK the Republicans aren't going to ban gay marriage and abortions, as they have long said it is a State's issue. At the same time, they get to regain their majority on the Supreme Court. But they had a majority one year ago, and gay marriage and abortion are still legally allowed (there is a swing Republican judge who maintains both are legal). So this is unlikely to change... unless the oldest judge, Ruth Ginsberg, retires, meaning the Republicans could expand their majority further.

6. Trade
Republicans are really torn on trade. It is unlikely that the Party is going to risk starting tariff wars with other countries by ripping up trade deals and taxing imports, even if this is a centerpiece of Trump's campaign. But the Trans-Pacific-Partnership is not happening, at least for America. If Trump wants to nix it he can... although other countries can easily approve it without America's membership.

7. Obamacare
There is actually some disagreement here. Although every Republican agrees Obamacare = Bad, there is disagreement over whether it should be replaced. Some maintain it shouldn't be replaced at all, just kill it. But most Republicans don't want to alienate the voters who benefit from it, and want something to keep key aspects of the law, such as stopping discrimination of pre-existing conditions. What they actually do will be interesting, as it will be difficult to get everyone to agree on a replacement.

8. The Welfare State
It's getting slashed, and Republicans will be happy about it. It is in the platform and is necessary to balance the budget, even though the tax cuts are so extreme I'm guessing the deficit will likely expand.

9. War on Terror
Ironically, little is likely to change here. Although police and the FBI are likely to get more funding and ignore civil liberties, this probably won't change lone wolf attacks very much. And the war against ISIS will probably get more funding, but is unlikely to speed up the victory if there are no American troops. Since Trump doesn't want troops in Iraq, and it would be very unpopular, this is about the same.

10. Syrian Crisis
An odd silver lining here. Although Republicans won't like it, Trump doesn't need to consult them here. He has long said he would like to work with both Putin and Assad to fight ISIS, meaning that there will be more coordination between various factions in the area. It also means Assad (who has killed millions of Syrians) will maintain power.

11. Infrastructure
Another silver lining! Republicans and Democrats have long talked about teaming up to tackle America's crumbling infrastructure. Now, Republicans can fix it however they choose, by either increased funding or even privatization.

12. Jobs
The government can't make jobs unless they actually hire people, and Republicans want to shrink government not grow it. Even if there are tariffs and trade agreements are removed, most manufacturing jobs aren't coming back, and if they do, they will be engineering jobs managing machines. Most of the unhappy, jobless working class are likely to stay that way.

13. Deporting all the Illegals
There are literally millions of illegal immigrants in the U.S. Although Trump is in his legal rights to enforce the law, this is a logistical nightmare. Some families could literally be torn apart, with illegal parents and American-born children. He can try and do it, but it will be very, very messy, and will not look good.

So... if your a Democrat, what do you learn from this? Well there is little for you to be happy about. At the same time, Trump is falling short of most of his promises. Historically, sitting President's lose Congress seats rapidly in midterm elections, though the gerrymandering of Congress may ensure it stays safe for some time. But I might be more worried as a Republican. It is hard to imagine Trump winning reelection if he fails to meet expectations, and that is a steep promise. And what is your party going to become? Can it remain the Party of Reagan, or is it now the Party of Trump?

I don't know. But for once, progressives get to retake the easier job of railing against the government and explaining why it is doing it all wrong. I'm going to love Fox News explain the screw-ups that are incoming.