Whatever your political leanings, you probably watched last Monday's Presidential debate. It is estimated that 84 million people tuned in, not including streaming from YouTube or Facebook. It was the biggest viewership for a US debate ever.
Now the media consensus has (mostly) agreed that Clinton won the debate. Although some polls go either way, the more reliable non-partisan ones agree with that assessment.
But if we break down the viewership by demographics, it isn't nearly a simple "Clinton one, Trump loss." And demographics is probably the best way to break down the electorate this year, especially when the traditional party lines have become so blurred by Trump's realignment of the Republican party.
So let's break it down.
Blue-Collar White Men:
This is white men with a high-school diploma, but likely never went to college. This includes manufacturing and other jobs that don't require education, but doesn't necessarily mean they are poor. Plumbers and firefighters are considered middle class and require more training but still fall under this category, and therefore this is the biggest segment of the white population (and probably the electorate in general). Very few are considered wealthy.
This is Trump's core support, and the reason he never falls under 30% in polling. Everything he says about trade and the economy is very resonant here, and many of his statements on social issues and foreign policy as well. He represents the "straight talker" and "identifies with us," as Trump rarely gives policy specifics and doesn't need to, as this group doesn't really want or understand policy specifics. That doesn't make blue-collar workers stupid (they aren't) but if your working hard and don't have a broad education, it is a lot more difficult to become informed on economic or geopolitical policy.
Trump probably lost negligible support because of his debate performance here, or maybe even gained support. His first half on economics resonates very well, and he didn't really say anything that a large portion of this group would disagree with. Clinton said nothing that truly connects to this group.
White-Collar White Men:
This group is similar to the last one, except most are college-educated and stick to office jobs. Accountants, stock brokers, engineers, doctors, IT, anything that requires the use of the brain over the hands. This group has historically been split between the parties. Older white-collar workers and retirees tend to be Republican, younger one's Democratic.
This group probably wasn't that affected by the debate either. Most of this group had likely already made up their mind over political preferences, and although Clinton's performance probably shifted some in her favor it would not have been significant. I simply don't think enough of this group were going into the debate on the fence.
African-American, Muslims and Latinos:
Obviously I could divide this group into further divisions, and race isn't necessarily the defining issue for all voters in this group, but I'm doing my best to keep it simple and as least complicated as possible.
This group was broadly supporting Clinton before the debate, with the consistent impressions that Trump drifts into racism. Deporting all illegal immigrants, banning all Muslims, and waffling on the KKK was not winning many of these voters. But Trump did have an opportunity to peel off some of these voters, and he blew it.
When asked "How would you heal the racial divide?" Trump said he would bring back jobs and bring back law and order. But what was key was that he said "stop and frisk" was very effective in bringing down crime. There are arguments for and against this, but it is obviously very unpopular with blacks, Latinos and Muslims. Although a white person may think it is effective, they haven't experienced being pulled over or frisked for simply being another race. Anything Trump said about the economy was completely negated by expressing support for this policy.
Millenials:
This is broadly speaking young people. It overlaps with other groups, but includes others like college students, interns, and those recently employed. It obviously leans more Democratic (especially in the swing states) and was the base of Bernie Sanders support. Many of whom loathe Clinton because of her primary battle, and see her indistinguishable to Trump. Millenials are the most likely to drift into third-parties or threaten not-voting.
This group Clinton did very well in with the debate. Facebook and Twitter was constantly posting messages about Trump's strangest statements, many simply mocking his constant sniffing. The comedy over the next two days made fun of him and praised Clinton. Although she didn't really do anything to win them over, she clearly won out as a better alternative and realistic choice for president.
White Women:
This group is absolutely key, and in polling comes out as the most undecided between candidates. This can be split further between stay-at-home mothers and wives, employed with a family or without, single mothers and more. It is a group that varies in political allegiance and knowledge, but consistently values character more than experience and policy. Between the candidates Trump and Clinton, both of dubious character, this makes white women the most likely to swing the election.
And Clinton won on the debate on character. When she was attacked she deftly turned aside character assassination through patient smiling or with her emails simply apologized (a sign of weakness among men, a strength among women). Trump waffled through confrontations on lying about Iraq, about racism and on "temperament." In comparison, Clinton appeared in control, even if it was rehearsed and a little cringe-worthy.
Conclusion:
Clinton was the overall winner. Trump may have gained a few more white male votes, but this was certainly offset by the shifts in millennials and women for Clinton. I would guess a shift of about 2 points (based on historical debate shifts) in favor of Clinton, but it well could be more.
That said, I still hold that polling is wrong in favor of the Democrats. Younger people and some minorities tend to lack a landline phone, and are thus underrepresented in polls. And the high voter registration among Latinos in this election, and the superior ad and ground staff of the Clinton campaign adds to that bump. Considering Obama beat Romney and the poll estimates by 2 points, I suspect a similar 2 point advantage exists unmeasured.
Still, the election is far from set. Although Trump consistently falls short of majority approval, he often gets close. And third-parties affects cannot be disputed (Ralph Nader, 2000), with third-parties trying to capitalize on the unpopularity of both candidates. We don't know until people actually vote.
