In the past few weeks there has been a lot of news about North Korea. And it isn't surprising why, as the news loves to ratchet up the fear factor of nuclear war. It's usually accompanied by the claims that Kim Jon Un is insane and wants to end the world.
But is North Korea really crazy? It's certainly different. It is an extreme dictatorship, considered the most authoritarian country in the world. Much of this is due to historical reasons, as the Korean peninsula was divided by occupying Communist and American soldiers into two countries, North and South. The North naturally became a communist country like the Soviet Union and Mao's China, while the South gradually transitioned into a democracy and free-market economy.
But it many ways, North Korea is stuck in 1945. The Soviet Union has long collapsed, with it largely embracing capitalism. China has also changed, being "communist in name only" as it pursues greater integration in global markets and pursuing economic prosperity. But North Korea has largely stayed the same. It is still technically at war with South Korea, with an armistice signed but not formal peace. The dictatorship is fully intact, and North Korea doesn't even produce enough food to feed its citizens (40% are believed to be malnourished).
None of this seems particularly rational from our point of view. But the North Korean government doesn't think it terms like "how do I save Korean lives" or "how can we improve the country?" The most important thing in North Korea is preserving its dictatorial regime. And when it looks at the Soviet Union, it very correctly perceives that free-market expansion can lead to a loss of authority, and eventual toppling of the government.
But the North Korean government is also terrified of South Korea. Their neighbor is far wealthier and is in many ways stronger than the North (it beats even Japan on standard of living and income). For example, North Korea claims that in a war, it would draft every one of their citizens to fight (which is kind of ridiculous, as only a fraction of North Koreans receive military training). But North Korea has a population of 24 million, compared to the South's 48 million. The South's military is also considered the seventh strongest in the world (comparable to France and Germany) as it has some of the best trained and equipped soldiers. But most troubling to the North is the South's alliance with the United States, the most powerful military that also has nuclear weapons.
So the North has tried to defend itself in a similar way to the superpowers of the Cold War, through deterrence. The North has had nuclear reactors for some time, left behind by Soviet scientists. The North has used these to develop nuclear weapons, to create security from ever being threatened by the United States. Although the North has developed these weapons, it lacks the right missile technology to properly launch them at the mainland U.S.
But despite this, North Korea already has a great deal of deterrence in effect. South Korea is highly urbanized and its capital city is not far from its border. The entire country is roughly the size of Pennsylvania. North Korea has an extensive missile system along the border, that if used could level cities and kill hundreds of thousands. This is why South Korean cities have created contingencies to use their underground subway system as bunkers in case of attack. And of course, North Korea could launch nuclear weapons at South Korea or Japan.
Here is where the rationality of North Korea comes in. The creation of these nuclear weapons and this missile system is really more of a defensive action than an offensive one. It sends the message, "If you attack us, we will attack you." Although this threat doesn't really work against the US, which is still out of range of North Korean missiles, it very much applies to South Korea. A primary reason the US does not attempt a preemptive attack is that South Korea would advise against it to protect their own citizens.
Kim Jon Un's goal is simple; attain the missile technology to attack mainland US, and the country will never be under threat from foreign invasion. They don't ever plan on using these weapons, as to ever do so would mean the total destruction of North Korea. If the North ever set off a nuke, the US would try to limit the destruction by launching their own to destroy North Korea entirely.
The US obviously does not want the North to develop the capability to reach the mainland US, and has probably internally decided that it the North ever tests such a missile successfully, then they will preemptively attack the North, without the South's cooperation. The US military will likely not tolerate the North having such a capability, and will trade South Korean lives to stop it.
The other player is China. The Chinese government is not happy with the North's provocations, benefited greatly from peace in Asia. The collapse of the North would also create a refugee crisis on its border, which is why China has recently sent troops on its Korean border (the Russians have as well).
China also subsidizes the North Korean government, and 89% of all North Korean trade is with China. Only they have any leverage over Kim Jong Un. For years, the Chinese have tried to balance North Korea being stable but also at peace.
If the US can successfully lobby China to do more to limit North Korean ambitions, there might be a peaceful solution. It is possible that China will agree to sanction North Korea, in an attempt to drive them to the bargaining table. For ages they have not done so, being afraid such actions would collapse the regime and cause a refugee crisis. But today, China may believe the risk of North Korea is less than that of the US preemptively attacking.
The biggest concern for me is whether the US is capable of forming a diplomatic solution. Obama spent a huge amount of time and effort pushing his controversial nuclear deal with Iran (which actually appears to be working). But today the US state department has shrunk dramatically. Many government workers under Obama have quit, and the Trump administration has been slow to fill these positions. Only 25 Senate-confirmed positions have been filled, and 531 remain empty.
Very few within the Trump administration seem to understand negotiation at all. Trump's main tactic appears to be leading with a dramatic bluff, and hope the other side makes some concessions. For example, Trump recently said he would pull out of the NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico. Not only did both countries quickly send out diplomats to both Europe and Asia to show they are willing to diversify trade (which hurts the US), American industry leaders came out against the statement. Trump quickly reversed this position, saying that Trudeau and Pena convinced him against pulling out in a phone call.
This same tactic is not going to work with North Korea. Trump tried to look tough by sending part of the US navy to sit off the Korean peninsula. The North Koreans tested a missile anyway, and a second one not much later.
The US has recently begun deploying the THAAD missile defense system in North Korea, which China has openly complained about. Whether the Trump administration is able to leverage the Chinese concern over further escalation of tensions, and North Korea fear of domination, will be probably upcoming. As Trump has said that North Korea is his number one foreign policy concern, hopefully some diplomatic negotiations can begin before the situation spirals into another war on the peninsula.
