So in the aftermath of the second Presidential debate and the newest scandals for both candidates, it seems like an appropriate time to evaluate how Trump and Clinton are doing in their race to the White House.
And Clinton appears to be winning big. Aggregate polling has her up in every swing state, and has even moved Arizona into contested territory. The last time Arizona went for a Democrat was 1996.
It has become so one-sided in polling that Democrats are now wondering if its possible they can win not just the Senate but also the House. The last time Democrats had Congress and the Presidency was 2008 in Obama's landslide victory, and ever since they lost the House in 2010 there has been lasting gridlock in Washington.
And perhaps they are right to be excited. Clinton is currently up by an average of 7 points nationwide, similar to Obama's 2008 victory. So it stands to reason the House can be won back. But let's stand back and wonder; is the polling even accurate? In recent elections polling has been wrong by 2 points or more, which can move Clinton from an easy victory to a close race. Let's look at possible polling errors.
1. Landlines are Dead.
Pollsters still rely heavily on calling up landlines for polling responses. They can't easily call cell-phones and get their information, so polling has remained fairly similar to how it was done eight years ago. But obviously key voters are less likely to have landlines, like young people or the poor. In retrospect, older voters are more likely to have landlines than everyone else. Pollsters do know about this and try to "weigh" responses based on demographics to shift responses to reflect the country, but it is still guesswork.
The funny thing is, when polls are wrong because of landlines it tends to help left-wing politicians. Although Clinton has less support from millennials than Obama because they are splitting up for third-parties, they aren't flocking to Trump. So if polling is wrong because of low responses to polling, Clinton could plausibly expand her lead to 9 points. This would be a big win that would easily win the Presidency and Senate, and likely capture the House.
2. Voters are Lying.
Sometimes people are so ashamed of the candidate they are supporting they can't face to admit it to the pollster, either claiming their undecided or pick the other team. This may sound made up, but it is real; both the Conservatives in the United Kingdom and Netanyahu in Israel were re-elected despite polling predicting their losses. Voters were afraid to admit they were more comfortable with the incumbent than the challengers, and pollsters couldn't catch the truth.
This probably helps Trump more than Clinton (he is polling as more unpopular) but Clinton too is immensely unlikable. Not to mention the people saying they like 3rd parties are more likely to pick realistic candidates when the enter the voting booth. This could move Trump to losing by 5 points (still big) but is more likely to come out as a wash, considering other voters could move in the opposite direction.
3. Split-Voting.
This is the weirdest one with less precedent, mostly because it can really only happen in the United States. In most parliamentary democracies, in federal elections you only vote for one person, your local representative. In the United States, you vote for the President, Senator, and Representative. And you don't have to pick the same party for each one, but instead could split you vote among several parties.
There isn't much evidence of this happening in even U.S. elections (most people simply vote the same party down the line), but this election is weird. Perhaps a voter isn't comfortable with Trump, but is a lifelong Republican who wants a Republican congress?
It is hard to say who this benefits. It doesn't really affect the Presidency, and assumes that polling is accurate. It just assumes the winners for seats in the Senate and House don't reflect that winner. So Republicans could gain from moderates who vote Clinton but split. But third-parties rarely even have candidates for the House or Senate, and those voters lean younger and more liberal, and therefore more likely to pick down-ballot Democrats. And the 3rd party vote sits around 10% right now, much larger than normal.
To conclude, Clinton will almost certainly be President unless there is a polling error of unseen magnitude. But it doesn't necessarily mean her victory will be a home-run, or even a blow-out. In the end, all we can really do is wait for election day and see what happens.
NOTE: I encourage everyone to vote, despite what the polling says. Even if you don't care for either candidate, the Senate and House will likely have a greater impact on your life than the Presidency ever will. And if your governor or local elections fall on the same day it is even more important, as the more local your politicians the more likely their decisions will affect you.
I've heard the argument that not voting is making a statement, that neither party is meeting your needs. In my opinion, such a statement will never be heard, as someone will nonetheless get elected and make decisions that affect your life. And no one likes people that both complain about their government, while at the same time doing nothing to stop it.
