In the past few weeks, a great many writers have said that the Russian star is on the rise. An American election crowned the openly pro-Russian Donald Trump, who has said he would like to collaborate with Russian interests in the Middle East and elsewhere. Other Eastern European nations have elected pro-Russian leaders, and the fate of the two rival organizations, the European Union and even NATO, may have their futures jeopardized.
But one key thing about Russia is often overlooked. It has weaknesses, ones that are not only structural and nearly crippling to the nation, but ones that Russians continue to ignore.
To understand the Russian Federation one needs to know how it became the way it is. Russia was once the core of the Soviet Union, the nation binding that empire together. Once the Soviets tried instituting reforms to match the economic successes of its ideological rivals, unintentionally dissolving the Union in the process, the Russian Federation was formed.
The Russian ruling class then had a choice when facing its new, post-communism fate. Should it try and join the capitalist community gradually, like China had? Or should it dismantle the government control of industry entirely, and jump headlong into this future, much like the Japanese in post-WWII?
The Russians chose the latter to great detriment. When most government organizations were dismantled, much of their workforce was left out of a job and income. The newly privatized corporations did not make up this loss in employment, and most economic gains were made by the very wealthiest of Russian society, now commonly referred to as the "oligarchs."
This led to the rise of Vladimir Putin. The past reforms had been made by President Boris Yeltsin (of both the Soviet Union and Russian Federation), who had become increasingly unpopular. When he decided to resign, his Prime Minister and ex-KGB Lieutenant Colonel Putin was made acting President.
Putin took advantage of his new power to make a deal with the oligarchs. The ones who supported his government were given special privileges with the state in exchange for their cooperation. The ones who resisted Putin were arrested or forced into exile. In the process, since Putin's inauguration corruption in the country has skyrocketed. On the corruption perceptions index Russia is ranked 120 out of 168 nations, more corrupt than China, Mexico, Colombia, and Vietnam.
But Putin did improve the economy. By taking advantage of Russia's newly discovered natural gas reservoirs and by rebuilding the government's state bureaucracy, the economy improved. And Russia remained powerful militarily, having inherited most of the Soviet Union's armed forces. By building a mostly state-run news medium, Russian support for Putin and the Kremlin remains incredibly high.
Now, here is where Russian weaknesses kick in. The past few years have been especially hard on Russian interests, both politically and economically.]
First was Ukraine. A nation that was also integral to the Soviet Union and has many historical ties to Russia diverted from its cousin. In 2014, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich diverted from his promise to pursue ties with the EU to instead work with Russia. The people revolted in the western and central areas of the country, booting Yanukovich from the presidency.
Putin soon responded. It is important to remember why the following happened; Ukraine was (and in Russian minds still is) part of Russia's sphere of influence, and any move away from Russia would inherently weaken it. Not only that, Ukraine was one of the few post-Soviet nations to remain close to Russia, as Poland, the Baltics, Hungary and Romania all turned away from the Federation.
Russian special troops soon entered and seized control of the Crimean peninsula, and rebels began popping up in Eastern Ukraine with Russian support. There is now an uncertain peace, but compared to the firmly pro-Russian Ukraine of the past, Russia now only has pockets of support in the country.
Next is Syria. Since 1956, Syria had received military support from the Soviet Union. It still remains one of the few allies Russia has in the Middle East, an area that is mostly affiliated with the United States, Europe, or has its own agendas.
When Syria began to be embroiled in its own civil war (mostly due to the mismanagement of its dictator), Russia again responded. Any attempt by the US or Europe to intervene through the United Nations was blocked by Russian veto power, and the Kremlin continued to support the Syrian government militarily despite its many humanitarian crimes.
Again, this has not proven very beneficial to Russia. Compared to the stable, reliable military ally of the past, Syria has become a mess. Only some government holdouts remain, while most of the country is controlled by rebels of various kinds, some US supported and others affiliated with ISIS.
Both of these foreign entanglements have been detrimental to Russia's perception abroad. Entanglements in Ukraine have made much of Eastern Europe much more keen on allowing NATO to build up forces to protect them, and has made the military alliance mostly a check against Russian power. NATO, which had been thought irrelevant after the Soviet Union's demise, once again has a purpose. Middle Eastern nations like Turkey and Saudi Arabia have also moved farther from Russian advances, and stepped up their own military spending. And Europe has moved to sanction Russia as punishment for its meddling.
And lastly comes the final Russian weakness; the economy. Although Putin managed to patch up the worst effects of the Soviet Union's dissolution, thing have again worsened. The sanctions hurt the Russian economy, but far worse was the drop in oil prices (due to Saudi Arabian tinkering) which plunged Russia into a recession in 2014 (and is only now tapering off).
This is what reveals the biggest problem Russia has. Its economy is over-reliant on one industry, energy. This is economically very risky. The more diversified a nation is economically, the more likely it can ride out market shocks and jolts. Russia is only successful when energy prices are high. But its long-term future is even worse. Compared to European and North American nations, Russians are not as well-educated and prepared for emerging industries in computing and information. Russia also has a very low-rate for immigration. Immigration is necessary considering the country has a low-birthrate, meaning its workforce will continue to fall and the country will become more unproductive in the future.
And (as mentioned before) much of the economic success of Russia is siphoned off due to corruption. It is estimated that in the 2014 Olympics, a road built to connect Sochi to other Russian cities cost $6.8 billion (for comparison, the entirety of the Canadian Olympics in 2010 cost $1.5 billion). Analysts pointed out that normally road construction is not so astronomical in cost, and that for $6.8 billion another country could have paved such a road with caviar or Louis Vuitton bags. The only rational answer is that the companies hired by the Kremlin to build the road were given some hefty bribes.
Normally these problems alone do not spell disaster. Countries all over the world have these same issues. What is really relevant is that the Kremlin doesn't seem to notice the country's trajectory. Instead, Putin feels more and more pressured to continue to interfere in foreign entanglements that are getting diminishing returns, when the situation at home is spiraling into worsening straits.
The reason it hasn't gotten personally bad for Putin and his oligarchs is that the propaganda machine that is Russian news has been able to spin the economy problems as a Western plot to destroy Russia. Although this is partly true (the sanctions are designed to hurt Russia) most of the problems Russia faces are natural movements of nations turning away from it on their own volition, or are the unstable economic climate collapsing on itself.
Russia continues to see itself as a global power on the rise, when instead it is descending into deeper stagnation. To save it, there needs to be a radical shifting of resources away from military spending to leverage energy revenues into building better education and infrastructure, to spur investment and build a diversified economy that can succeed in the future. Sadly, under current leadership, this will certainly not happen, and it is only a question of when, not if, the Russian people turn on those who have wronged them.
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a27243/russia-olympics-caviar-road/
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