Since the 2016 election I've read more than one article or column that has described how the Democratic Party is in disarray. Their chosen candidate was defeated, and the party was thrown into a crisis of identity; is the party neoliberal, or progressive? Will the party ever truly recover from the devastating loss of every branch of government?
But these articles aren't new. Similar ones were made when Obama won in 2008, winning not just the presidency by the Senate and House as well. But instead of the end of the Republican party, it gradually recovered, winning the House in 2010, the Senate in 2014, and now the Presidency in 2016.
That is the interesting (or boring) thing about American politics. Unlike Canada or Europe where there are at least three parties realistically competing for governance, the US has only two. And the tradition has always been when the party in charge states a policy, the opposition plants a competing argument.
Originally, the Republican party was the party of Lincoln, and the Democrats were the party of slavery. Then with FDR the Democrats were firmly pro-government and the Republicans pro-business. Then with Lyndon Johnson the Democrats were for civil rights and the Republicans against.
The last time one of the parties truly dominated the government was in the wake of the civil war, when the Democratic Party was viewed as the "traitors" who wanted to break up the union. It wasn't until vote-splitting between candidates Taft and Teddy Roosevelt that the Democrat Woodrow Wilson claimed victory (an unapologetic racist who also won WWI and tried to establish the League of Nations).
Ever since then the government has flipped back and forth pretty consistently between the two parties. The last time a party had the presidency for three terms was Ronald Reagan for two and Bush Sr. for one more. Ever since it has consistently been two terms for each president and their respective party.
So what can we expect in the Democrats future? Though they all disagree on the future of the country, they all agree to oppose most of what Trump and the Republican party propose. And it is likely they will make gains in the Senate and House in two years when most of the Trump promises remain unmet.
In four years it is difficult to say what will happen. Either the electorate will feel more comfortable with Trump's leadership and he will win reelection by a bigger margin (similar to Bill Clinton and Bush Jr.) or the electorate will feel the president has not met his promises enough and lose votes (just like Obama did). If Trump loses votes a loss is almost guaranteed as his margin of victory in 2016 was so small.
When I bring this up to people they remind me how the Democratic Party is pretty barren of recognizable national candidates. Hillary Clinton is now politically dead (if you can't beat Trump you can't beat anyone), the only other that easily comes to mind is Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, who will be 78 and 79 respectively in 2020.
But the next Democratic nominee is probably someone no one really knows right now. Some Democrats are going to get a bit more famous by taking dramatic stands against Trump's agenda in the coming years. And there are still many Democratic governors (and there will be more) across the United States. Most noticeably, the Democrats do best in elections for mayors (only 13 of the biggest US cities have Republican mayors, the biggest being San Diego).
So the candidates exist. The only thing one has to do is beat the other no-names to win the Democratic nomination, and once you've done that you are a national candidate. Very few people knew Obama's name before 2008, or Bill Clinton's before 1992. Even Trump was not recognized for politics until he actually announced he wanted to build a wall.
In four years, there will be a Democratic nominee, and he'll get the national platform to take on the President. All this nominee needs to do is hope Trump is as bad a president as every Democrat thinks he'll be, and someone you don't even know will be president in 2020.
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