Canada's Donald Trump

In case you didn't notice, Kevin O'Leary has announced his candidacy for the leadership of the Conservative Party in Canada.

If you've ever watched Shark Tank, Kevin is the investor who is always sitting in the middle of the room. Shark Tank was actually developed from the Canadian version (called Dragon's Den) which originally had Kevin on, but when Tank was made he moved to that.

Kevin's getting a lot of comparisons to Donald Trump because they are both very outspoken, made it big on reality TV, and have no government experience. And while I've talked to several Canadians who have mostly laughed off his candidacy ("He would NEVER get elected here!") there are probably a few things people should know.

Can he Win?
Yes. Although I find it doubtful that a majority of Canadians approve of Kevin, they don't have to for him to win. The conservative leadership race is now between a grand total of fourteen people. They all are essentially nobodies to the general public, and the race isn't nearly as publicized as the Republican primaries were. Through name recognition alone, Kevin O'Leary is the favorite.

In polling Kevin consistently breaks 20%, while the candidates do at best 15% (including polls that don't have him listed). The reason is simple; each conservative "brand" is being filled by several people. There are a few reformers, a few traditionalists, and a few radicals. If Kevin gets 25% in a contest of 14 people who split the remaining 75% fairly uniformly, he wins easily.

Another factor is that candidates are elected in a ranked ballot. This means that voters rank their candidates instead of picking one. Although the most politically in-tune may actually figure out how they place the 14 people, it is more likely that Kevin will drift to the top consistently because he's memorable (people tend to remember 7 variables at most at a time).

And although Kevin isn't that popular for PM among general Canadians, he isn't playing for them (yet). To become conservative leader you need a plurality of conservative voters. So it is definitely feasible for Kevin to win 25% of conservative voters.

How are Trump and Kevin alike (or not)?
Apart from the reality TV, Kevin and Trump share some personality quirks. Kevin is the poster-boy for Shark Tanks for his one-liners, put downs and general cruelty to contestants. Kevin also has no government experience, though he has appeared several times on BNN or CBC to comment on how he thinks the government should be run.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWspMJNgT6w

But apart from crude language, the two are pretty different. Kevin is actually fairly articulate in policy and has nailed his persona as a Gordon Gecko-esque investor in a dog-eat-dog world. Comparatively, Trump can hardly stay focused, constantly contradicts himself, and steps into scandal repeatedly.

There isn't any evidence Kevin is racist or sexist, though he probably lacks a proper amount of empathy (its hard to imagine a genuine photo with a baby). And on policy the two agree on little.

Trump can often appear as populist as it gets, simultaneously promising a ban on Muslims while offering "the best healthcare for everybody." O'Leary has been fairly consistent, though he hasn't truly articulated many of his policies outside of economics.

But on economics he isn't populist at all. On the contrary, he sounds more like a Wall Street broker running to create a capitalist paradise. He has spoken mostly on how he is against government waste, high taxes and a low Canadian dollar, and has said he believes the Liberal government will lead to an economic collapse in Canada. When told that the richest 85 people on Earth were equivalent in wealth to the poorest half of the global population, he replied that such a statistic should be applauded as an inspiration for anyone to work hard to become wealthy as well.

The French Challenge
The biggest challenge Kevin probably faces is uniquely Canadian. He isn't bilingual, and has only started learning the language in the past year. In Canada it is thought a necessity to be bilingual to be a national government figure, for the simple reason that the second biggest province, Quebec, gets royally annoyed when they don't.

This has become a bit of a contention already between the various conservative candidates, as the most experienced members who worked for previous PM Harper tend to be from Alberta, where French is completely unneeded. The others who are fluent try to point out that without being bilingual you cannot lead all Canadians.

But at the end of the day, the next conservative leader isn't going to be chosen because they can speak French. Although Quebec is an important battle-ground in elections, it isn't the conservative heartland. Quebec is ahead of the rest of the country in subsidies, protests, unions and corruption, and is more fertile territory for every party except the conservatives.

The voters who are consistently conservative are from the Midwest provinces of Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. If new conservatives register it will be from Ontario, where the Liberal premier Kathleen Wynn has plummeted in popularity (she is currently the most unpopular premier in Canadian history in any province).

The bilingual problem becomes more pronounced when the candidates do bilingual debates, but Kevin has waited until the last moment to announce and has therefore avoided this problem so far. But there are still two more debates to go before voting.

So my guess? If Kevin doesn't trip over his own feet in the next coming months, he may be a shoe-in for leader. And then PM Trudeau is going to have a merciless capitalist nipping at his sides right until 2019.